Almanacs Clash Over Autumn Outlook

According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, residents in Indiana and the surrounding Midwest might finally catch a break from the relentless heat.

“Expect a cool and dry fall,”
states the publication, projecting a temperature dip of up to two degrees in both September and October.

This could mean an earlier return to long sleeves and warm drinks for much of the region, especially the Ohio Valley and upper Midwest.

But this calm scenario is challenged by the Farmer’s Almanac, which envisions a far more turbulent picture for Fall 2025.

“Fall 2025 is shaping up to be a season of contrasts across the United States,”
writes the almanac, adding:

“From early chills in the North to lingering warmth in the South, and from stormy skies to tranquil stretches, this fall will keep us on our toes.”

Their forecast points to relatively clear skies in September, but also hints at a tug-of-war between pleasant weather and abrupt storm systems. Of particular concern is the potential for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, especially across the Ohio Valley and Central Plains.

By October and November, more traditional cool weather may settle in, with even a possibility of early snowfall in regions around the Great Lakes.

NOAA Adds Another Layer to the Forecast

While almanacs offer dramatic (and often poetic) views of the changing seasons, scientific models tell a different story. Meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have issued their own seasonal outlook, and it suggests that summer’s grip may linger longer than expected.

On July 17, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released a temperature outlook for September through November, giving Indiana a 33% to 50% chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures.

“The country is generally leaning warmer for fall 2025,”
states the agency, based on model projections and long-range climate data.

So for sweater-lovers and autumn enthusiasts, that may mean holding off on the cozy wardrobe and pumpkin patches a little while longer.

Can the Almanacs Be Trusted?

Despite their confident forecasts, the accuracy of both almanacs has long been debated. Each claims a striking 80–85% accuracy rate, but scientific evaluations suggest otherwise.

A study cited by Popular Mechanics found the Farmer’s Almanac correct only 52% of the time, making it only slightly more reliable than chance.

So while the forecasts are widely read and often talked about, they shouldn’t be taken as gospel. For many, they are part tradition, part folklore, and part entertainment.

What Does a “Normal” Fall Look Like in Indiana?

To understand what’s at stake, it’s worth revisiting what fall typically feels like in Indiana.

According to 30-year averages (1991–2020) provided by the National Weather Service, the average high temperatures for Indianapolis are:

• September: 78°F

• October: 66°F

• November: 52°F

In contrast, last year’s numbers were slightly warmer:

• September: 81°F

• October: 72°F

• November: 56°F

Indiana typically sees 3.27 inches of rain spread across the fall months, contributing to the region’s vibrant foliage and occasional foggy mornings.

Seasonal Change Dates for 2025

• Spring Begins: March 20

• Summer Begins: June 20

• Fall Begins: September 22

• Winter Begins: December 21

As always, time will tell which forecast rings true. For now, Hoosiers are left in limbo—caught between dueling almanacs, climate models, and their own hopeful visions of sweater weather and cinnamon-scented breezes. Whether fall arrives as a cool embrace or an extension of summer’s furnace, one thing is certain: Indiana’s skies are rarely predictable.