A new midyear report by the Council on Criminal Justice brings a puzzling contrast to light—while violent crime is falling across most American cities, Washington, D.C. faces a grimmer transformation. Though overall incidents are fewer, they are growing far more deadly. The capital’s rising lethality rate—a sharp increase in violence ending in death—now overshadows its progress. As automatic weapon conversions and fatal shootings climb, the city’s safety narrative shifts from declining crime to deadlier outcomes, offering a chilling reminder that fewer crimes don’t always mean safer streets.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Nationwide drop in violent crime, per CCJ’s 2024 midyear report.

• Washington, D.C. an exception, with growing fatality rates in violent incidents.

• Lethality rate has increased over 300% in the capital since 2012.

• Gun-related crime deaths surged 200% over the same period.

• 2023 saw the highest homicide count (274) in D.C. since 1997.

• 22% more shootings became fatal in 2023 compared to previous years.

• Rise in automatic weapon conversions linked to higher death toll.

• Over 3,000 guns recovered by MPD in 2023 alone.

While much of the nation appears to be making a gradual but steady return to pre-pandemic levels of safety, the nation’s capital is facing a harsher truth: violent crime may be occurring less frequently, but when it does, it is far more likely to end in death.

A newly released midyear report by the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) sheds light on the evolving nature of crime across urban America. Drawing from data gathered in multiple major cities including Washington, D.C., Baltimore, and Richmond, the report offers a mixed bag of outcomes. On the surface, the numbers suggest progress—many cities are recording declines in homicides and other violent crimes. But a closer look at the District of Columbia reveals a more disturbing shift.

“The overall takeaway is that homicide and other violent crimes are declining through the first half of this year and continuing to fall below pre-pandemic levels,”
said Ernesto Lopez, senior researcher at the Council on Criminal Justice.

Lopez emphasized that this isn’t an isolated dip. Instead, it appears to be a continuation of a trend that’s been gaining traction over the past couple of years. Even offenses that saw dramatic increases during the pandemic years—like motor vehicle theft and carjackings—are beginning to cool off.

“Even some offenses, such as motor vehicle theft, that were seeing huge spikes really throughout 2022 and 2023, are starting to come down in many jurisdictions,”
Lopez added.

Carjackings, which had seen a particularly alarming rise since 2020, also appear to be subsiding. Though not yet at pre-2020 numbers, the drop is described as “noticeable.” But this relative calm masks a graver reality in Washington, D.C., where the lethality—or deadliness—of violent acts has escalated significantly.

Lopez noted that while people may take comfort in hearing that overall violent crime is declining, the real concern in D.C. is how often those crimes now result in death.

“Lethality has climbed significantly,”
Lopez explained.
“We look back to 2012 lethality—that share of violence that ended in homicide—and that increased by over 300% from 2012 to 2024, even if the homicide rate itself drops.”

This upward shift in lethality is closely tied to gun-related crimes. The data points to a staggering 200% increase in deaths following crimes involving firearms since 2012 in Washington, D.C. The issue isn’t just how often people are shot—it’s how often they don’t survive those shootings.

Former and current D.C. police officials have been vocal about this shift. D.C. Metropolitan Police referred inquiries to statements made by Police Chief Pamela Smith during her 2024 testimony before the D.C. Council, where she spoke extensively about the homicide surge.

“In 2023, we recorded 274 homicides—the highest number since 1997,”
Chief Smith stated.

She broke down the data to show that while shootings had risen by 9% over the previous three-year average, the more alarming statistic was that the number of those shootings that ended in death had jumped by 22%. According to her testimony, had the fatality rate of shootings remained at 2017 levels, the city would have seen 82 fewer homicides last year alone.

One explanation for this jump in fatal outcomes, according to Smith, is the increasing presence of illegal gun modifications—specifically, conversion switches that can turn semi-automatic handguns into fully automatic weapons, drastically increasing their firing capability.

“One factor driving the higher lethality of shootings is the increase in the use of conversion switches, which modify handguns from semiautomatic to fully automatic,”
Smith told the council.

The numbers paint a clear picture. The Metropolitan Police Department recovered 195 modified handguns in 2023, nearly triple the 66 seized in 2021. And in total, officers confiscated more than 3,000 firearms last year—virtually the same as 2022, but a 36% increase compared to 2021.

Although the report indicates that the steep upward climb in gun-related lethality may have begun to flatten, Lopez cautioned that the current levels are still well above where they were a decade ago.

“That has flattened out,”
Lopez said of the trend.
“But it still remains significantly elevated compared to around 2012, and even the last several years.”

As other American cities cautiously move toward recovery and stabilization post-pandemic, Washington, D.C. continues to grapple with a darker evolution of its crime landscape—one where the threat may be less frequent, but far more final.

While declining crime rates may paint a picture of progress, Washington, D.C.’s growing lethality in violent incidents tells a more sobering story. The alarming rise in fatal outcomes, especially from gun-related attacks, reveals a deeper, more dangerous shift beneath the surface of falling crime statistics. As authorities work to control illegal firearm modifications and reduce violence, the city stands at a critical crossroad—where survival now depends not just on prevention, but on the urgent need to curb the deadliness of each violent act that still slips through.

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