Staff Reporter
Canadian Tourism to the United States has taken a steep dive in 2025, marking the sixth straight month of year-over-year declines. Official data shows a 33.1% drop in Canadians returning by car in June and a 22.1% fall in air travel. The downturn follows political tensions, including President Donald Trump’s “51st state” remark and former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s call to vacation within Canada. With Canadian visitors generating over $20 billion for the U.S. economy in 2024, states from Florida to Montana are now bracing for significant tourism and spending losses.
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
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Canadian automobile returns from U.S. down 33.1% in June 2025
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Air travel returns down 22.1% year-over-year
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Sixth straight month of automobile travel decline
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Trudeau urged Canadians to vacation domestically in February
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Advance bookings for Canada–U.S. flights (Apr–Sep) down 70%
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2024 saw 20.4 million Canadian visitors spend $20.5B in the U.S.
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Popular states at risk: Florida, California, Nevada, New York, Texas
A growing travel rift between Canada and the United States is taking shape, as new data shows a significant drop in the number of Canadians crossing the border for vacations and leisure. The downturn, now stretching into its sixth consecutive month, is being felt from major tourist states to small border towns.
The drop comes on the heels of an unusually turbulent political period. Earlier this year, former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly encouraged citizens to rethink their vacation plans. Speaking in February, he urged:
“Choose Canada. Change your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada and explore the many national and provincial parks, historical sites, and tourist destinations our great country has to offer.”
The call came after U.S. President Donald Trump’s campaign remarks about making Canada the “51st state,” comments that stirred political tensions across the border.
The effects were visible almost immediately in travel industry data. By April, aviation analytics firm OAG recorded a 70% drop in advance flight bookings from Canada to the U.S. for the April–September period compared with last year.
According to the U.S. Travel Association, Canadian visitors are the largest single group of international travelers to the United States. In 2024, 20.4 million Canadians visited, spending $20.5 billion. Even a 10% reduction in visits could translate into a $2.1 billion loss for the American economy.
Certain states are more exposed than others. Florida, California, Nevada, New York, and Texas traditionally see the highest Canadian tourist traffic. Yet smaller border states are feeling the pinch as well. In New Hampshire, which shares an eastern border with Canada, business and tourism officials have noticed a dramatic change.
“Absolutely, the Canadian numbers are lower this year, for sure,”
said Taylor Caswell, New Hampshire’s commissioner for business and economic affairs.
“They’re running at about 30 percent underneath what we’ve seen in prior years.”
The trend extends westward. In Montana, credit card data shows the same pattern.
“Spending by Canadians in Kalispell has decreased by an average of about 37 percent per month from January to April,”
said Diane Medler, executive director of Discover Kalispell.
In nearby Whitefish, the impact is smaller but still significant.
“Canadian credit card spending has dropped 25 percent through the month of May,”
said Zak Anderson, executive director at Explore Whitefish.
Not all states are resigning themselves to the decline. New Hampshire, for example, is taking steps to re-engage Canadian travelers. In September, the state plans to send a trade delegation north to emphasize shared economic and tourism ties.
“We’re going to continue to focus on our relationships with Canada, which are quite important,”
said New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte.
For now, tourism officials on both sides of the border are watching closely to see whether the downturn deepens — or whether renewed outreach can reverse the trend before the next peak travel season.
Whether the slide in Canadian tourism proves to be a temporary dip or the start of a longer trend remains unclear. For U.S. states that rely heavily on cross-border visitors, the coming months will be a critical test. Much will depend on whether political rhetoric cools, travel confidence returns, and targeted outreach efforts succeed in reminding Canadians why the United States has long been a favored destination.
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